Cabinets for Sale

So the new Malaysian cabinet has been named and it looks like this:

 

That's a total of 24 Ministerial Departments. Compare that with the cabinet of the USA, a country about 30 times larger in size and with around 10 times more people than Malaysia:

 

 

 

The US has 15 Ministerial Departments. Why does Malaysia need so many departments? Why do we need three departments for Plantation Industries & Commodities, Agriculture & Agro Based Industry and Natrural Resources? Can't they be merged into a single entity?

 

Also now that Pakatan Rakyat has an even larger representation in the parliament, why can't reps from Pakatan component parties be appointed as ministers? Example, the Ray LaHood, a Republican, served as Secretary of Transport during Obama's first term at office. Since BN is finding it difficult to finding a MCA rep to be Transport Minister after they decided to decline government posts, why not get someone from PKR or DAP? Looks like Malaysian politics still has a long way to go before it grows up..

 

 

 

A frustrated country, a shot in the arm to KLCI

After almost 1 year of speculating on dates, hundreds of ceramahs, billions of facebook posts and finally with blackout photos, GE13 is over.While a slim majority of the vote went to Pakatan Rakyat, the KLCI went ahead and celebrated like it was a major coup by Barisan Nasional. Since the majority of votes went to PR, do we have a right to withhold our taxes to the government?

At closing, KLCI was at 1752 points and even went to an all time high of 1862 points.. its as if the market was on a hot date and was holding a fart for erm.. 1 month? And then the date was over and he could finally let it go.

In fact, the KLCI opened at 1799 points, a 6% increase from last Friday's close. Most days the KLCI doesn't even move by a percent.. looks like all the fund houses were sitting on a pile of cash and had their computers set on 'buy at inflated prices' in the event of a BN victory. The reverse would have probably happened in the remote chance of a PR victory.. However I don't foresee there to be much retail trading for the near future, until all the political heat has dissipated. Based on the 14 day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, the KLCI has been overbought (above 70% RSI) since March. Perhaps a correction could be seen in the next few weeks. But thanks to today's sudden jump, it would probably not drop to levels much below that before elections were announced, possibly in the 1600-1700 range. 

Now to the elections.. Contrary to what the (dubiously elected) Prime Minister says, GE13 was not a Chinese tsunami or had anything to do with race. It seems that the country is moving from a race struggle to a class struggle - similar to what was seen at the 2008-2010 Thai political crisis where the Yellow Shirts represented the middle classes while the Red Shrits mostly represented the lower classes. Foreign workers, blackouts and phantom votes can only contribute so much to results. BN's victory was still a result of gerrymandering which favours rural areas. Its pretty evident that Pakatan Rakyat is championing very middle class issues while BN is still seen as the protector by the rural folks. 

Whether right or wrong, it seems that most revolutions are determined by the lower classes and peasants such as in the French Revolution and Chinese Revolution. In the case of the China, it was won by communist peasants. In the next GE, the party who can gain the most support from the rural folks will most likely be the victor.

The Problem with Choice

Finally, its election time here at Malaysia again..Speculation on the election date started since last year.. if you kept a beard since then, it would probably be longer than Gandalf's by now.. 

                           

Since parliament was dissolved on 3rd April, KLCI has jumped from 1685 points to as high as above 1700 points.. which is completely opposite from what OSK predicted in this article:

“The election trading strategy will be to keep it short and tight,” OSK advised. “Investors should remember that elections are in general a short term localised driver.”

The report further recommended that investors wait for profit taking ahead of the general election before entering the market and focus on blue chips in the banking, oil and gas, and construction sectors.

“Outside of this localised trading strategy, we remain defensive on the longer term and maintain our 1466-pt KLCI fair value for 2012,” OSK concluded.

Well does that make the KLCI extremely unfairly valued now? We'll see by the beginning of next month.. 

Which brings me to my point - the problem with democracy. Even if elections were totally fair, without gerrymandering, phantom votes and false allegations on sexuality, it ends up being a popularity contest like American Idol - Does the best singer win? The one with the most promising career? Or the best looking? Or the one that just makes us feel good, reason unknown?

For a candidate/party to win, it has to cater to the whims and fancies of the general populace.. even if it means polices that are financially detrimental to the country in the long term such as cash hand outs, subsidies, unnecessary projects, etc.. and the less educated the general populace are, the easier it would be to manipulate their thoughts. Both sides simply need to have populist policies just to win, but these polices may well end up draining the country's already drained-out funds.. 

                          

This will not be the state of the country's funds with democracy..

So what's an alternative to democracy? There really isn't any, as long as humans are the rulers. Humans are emotional, and emotions don't always result in the best decisions.. What we need are a bunch of computers programmed with the best political, social and financial theories and a bunch of robots to execute orders.. But wait, doesn't that mean humankind would be leaving its fate to computers and machines? Of course not, where do you think those theories came from? What we need are governments which are completely unbiased and unprejudiced, with full access to the latest information all the time.. Plato had it right in his work The Republic: 

According to this model, the principles of Athenian democracy (as it existed in his day) are rejected as only a few are fit to rule. Instead of rhetoric and persuasion, Plato says reason and wisdom should govern. As Plato puts it:

"Until philosophers rule as kings or those who are now called kings and leading men genuinely and adequately philosophise, that is, until political power and philosophy entirely coincide, while the many natures who at present pursue either one exclusively are forcibly prevented from doing so, cities will have no rest from evils,... nor, I think, will the human race." (Republic 473c-d)

Well there weren't any computers or robots back then so philosophers would be the best bet.. but philosophers are humans and hence corruptible.. computers and robots are not. 

Undilah Sains dan Teknologi!

I vote him for our next Prime Minister

Adventure at Lombok

Havent't updated this blog in awhile.. That's because I was busy climbing a volcano.. that's right, on March 25th, after some 8 hours of sweat, blood and sore muscles, my fiancee and I conquered Mount Rinjani  on the Indonesian island of Lombok.

We started our journey at Kuala Lumpur on March 24th, taking AirAsia's new direct flight to Lombok. At the airport, we were picked up by a personnel of the Rinjani Trekking company (John's Adventures). The ride from the airport to the base of the mountain at Senaru was an adventure itself, about 3 hours of stomach churning weaving through narrow roads.

The view from Senaru was great, we could see Mount Rinjani looming over the rice fields, set to be conquered by us the next day. As a taster, we did a half an hour trek to a nearby waterfall..

 The view from our guest house at Senaru, the base of Mount Rinjani

Waterfall at Senaru

We woke up at the crack before the crack of dawn at 5am the next day to begin our ascent to the volcano.. rather than a fellowship of 9 to destroy the One Ring, it was 5 of us, as we had one guide and two porters to carry our tents and food for the next 2 days.

The journey started fairly easily with some trekking through the forest for about an hour. I was pretty worked up after that hour but little did I know that we were just trekking to the gate of the Rinjani park.. that's when I knew it was gonna be a long day ahead of us..

The entrance to the volcano.. where are the danger signs?

From the gate we climbed up for about  2 hours through thick jungle terrain to the first post (Pos 1).. after a brief stop for some snacks, we continued on to the next post, Pos Ekstra. This extra post was a welcome relief after another hour of trekking.. really should be renamed as essential rather than extra, as by then I was well tired out..

Our first rest stop at Pos 1

 

Trusty porters packing food and stuff for our journey

And so our adventure continued to Pos 2 for another rest and on to Pos 3 where we would have lunch.. the climb from Pos 2 to 3 felt as epic as Frodo's journey to Mondor for the unfit and untrained yours truly.. had to rest every 15 minutes just to catch my breath! We stated off before our porters at Pos 2 but they soon overtook us, which was good as by the time we arrived at Pos 3 two hours later, they already had lunch prepared for us.

Our guide was so hardcore that he ate a pack of instant noodles raw.. we opted for the cooked version instead.. after our growling stomachs were silenced with lunch, we ventured on through rocky terrain to the rim of the volcano..

Not only am I walking like an old man, I also felt like one by the stage of this journey.. 

The climb to the rim felt less tiring but had its own challenges as the trek was steep and the trail not well defined.. well there was no point stopping around as two hours of trekking later, this was what awaited us..

The view from the crater rim of Mount Rinjani. When the original volcano erupted, a mini volcano formed 

And what a view it was.. after enduring what was probably the most physically challenging 8 hours of my life, it was well worth it.

By the time we arrive at the crater rim our porters had set our camp for us. We even had a toilet tent where they dug a hole for us to deposit our.. ermm business.. well I guess that's what 2 million Rupiah per person buys.. 

The view from the other side of the crater rim.. very Lord of the Rings-ish

Enjoying the view with some volcanic Coke!

Our toilet for the evening.. 

Tents of other climbers line up the peak of the mountain

Its erupting!

Mount Agung at Bali can be seen in the distance

The next morning, we began our descend after watching the sunrise.. the trip down wasn't any easier.. too bad we couldn't throw a ring down down the volcano and have some eagles rescue us as it erupts..

As we reached Pos 2, the rain started to fall down.. what was supposed to be an easier trek down became a wet and soaking one.. After what seemed like an eternity, we finally reached back to where we started.. by then out legs felt like two sore wooden poles..

We spent the next few days at Lombok recovering our drained out bodies, eating ayam lalapan and ikan bakar, and checking the Gili islands. Meals at local warungs cost around half that at restaurants, around 50,000 rupiah for both of us each meal. The Gili islands didn't impress me too much, noticed that most of the corals were dead when we went to snorkel.

After a week at Lombok, it was time for us to head back. It was a great week away for us, highlighted by the magnificent Rinjani Volcano..

My Watchlist

My KLSE Watchlist consisits of:

AIRASIA

ARMADA

ASTRO

AXIATA

AXREIT

BJTOTO

BSTEAD

CARLSBG

CIMB

COASTAL

DAYANG

DIALOG

DIGI

ECM

FGV

GAMUDA

IGBREIT

IHH

IOICORP

KULIM

MAHSING

MAXIS

MAYBANK

MPHB

PADINI

PBBANK

PERISAI

QL

RSAWIT

SKPETRO

SPSETIA

SUPERMX

TENAGA

THPLANT

TM

TSH

WASEONG

YTL

Based on an equal weighting index (not the most accurate I have to admit) its 3 month performance as of 6 March 2013 is:

Its been rising steadily since the last two weeks. Wonder what could be the reason? Common knowledge has it that local funds are not venturing to the market and are hoarding cash. Some forces at work, trying to boost up prices before elections? Hope its not my EPF money..

And why the big drop on 21st January? All I know is Obama got inaugurated that day..

MAHB Earnings do a hard landing on the tarmac

MAHB seems to had poor Q4 earnings.. Quoted from The Star's article:

Quote:

Malaysia Airports Q4 earnings dn 19% to RM78m on impairments

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) earnings fell 19.3% to RM78.03mil in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2012 from RM96.75mil a year ago due to impairment of investment in an associate company.

It announced on Wednesday its revenue rose 7.7% to RM1.328bil from RM813.20bil while earnings per share were 6.45 sen compared with 8.79 sen.

Unquote

So what's 'impairment of investment'? Well here's Investopedia's definition of 'impairment':

Investopedia explains 'Impairment'

1. This is usually reduced because of poorly estimated losses or gains. 

2. Impairment can be used in many contexts. Whatever the situation, impairment is bad for the company.

Simple definition: Impairment = Bad.. 

All they had to do was collect airport taxes from airline fares and run an extremely dull airport lacking in restaurants and services (See Changi Airport as comparison).. and they couldn't do a good job out of it? Well what do I know, I don't own an airport.. if I did, I'll put right smack in the middle of the city and organise music gigs there every weekend..

According to Wikipedia, MAHB's associate companies are Urusan Teknologi Wawasan Sdn. Bhd., Kuala Lumpur Aviation Fuelling System Sdn Bhd and Cambodia Airport Management Services Limited. I don't know what technology they are investing in, last time I checked aircrafts still need to be refueled.. but what are they doing in Cambodia?

Minimalist Design

Inspired by the Zenhabits site (which has some pretty good life advice) I've decided to adopt a minimalist design for this blog.. no more distracting backgrounds.. and colour blind readers need not feel that they're missing out..

KLCI Drops Due to Election Fears Due to...

Another down day for KLCI, again attributed to election fears.... seriously? I think the financial news is in dire need for some boost of creativity. All this election talk is getting a bit old. Its not like we didn't know the elections would be held sometime this year. If fund houses really didn't have confidence in the Malaysian market wouldn't they have pulled out earlier? Anyway I think this creates continued trading opportunities as shares make sudden drops and make small rebounds..

The more things change, the more they stay the same

Opposition holds a rally and 150,000 people turn up. Najib has one and people only turn up because they are paid or there's free food.. well its no secret which party most Malaysians are not going to vote for in the coming election.. only thing is will it make a change? Will the opposition be seduced by greed and corruption once in power? Only time will tell.. if it was up to me, we should use all our scientific abilities to resurrect Deng Xiaoping and make enough clones of him to rule every country in the world. Now that's a suitable alternative the whole flawed democracy system..  

Where's the free food?

Now there's a leader, with bronze statue and all that..  Will they make a statue of Mahathir out of recycled Proton cars when he passes away?

Of Monsters and Men - Little Talks

Well, maybe there's some hope in mainstream music after all.. been pretty impressed by Of Monsters and Men's Little Talks. Maybe its all the added layers in the music with trumpets and accordions which make it stand out among the other saccharine sounding stuff that passes off for music on the radio.. and the way the male and female vocals play off each other.. 

They have also increased the amount of artists/bands from Iceland that people know about by 33%, following Bjork and Sigur Ros.. 

TSH.. maybe not

Ok, maybe TSH wasn't a missed opportunity after all as written in my previous post. On Thursday 3rd Jan it opened at a much lower price than the previous day's closing, making profit taking above RM2.27 impossible.. looks like some sort of manipulation going on here..

In other news, the KLCI is reaching new heights each day! Well as Robert Plant, lead singer of the band that invented rock and roll (Led Zeppelin) said after he discovered gravity, what goes up must come down.. Lets see how long this rally can sustain.. 

Upon further checking, it seems that some random guy by the name of Sir Isaac Newton was the originator of the quote and discovered gravity instead of Robert Plant.. I must say they look really similar..

TSH.. missed opportunity

Today, TSH was the star performer in my watchlist of stocks.. up 18 sen (8.29%).. it was also the top performer of plantations stocks.. which I think might have some small upside this month.

TSH seems to make sudden jumps in price and consolidate immediately, forming a tight pennant.. time to wait for the next jump..

Seems like the stock was 'played' at the end of the day, with significant jumps in price and volume.. 

New Year Optimism?

Most Asian share indices started 2013 with some optimism, but as usual KLCI decided to buck the trend and reverse 14 points..

Asia Region

Index Name	Value	Change	% Change	Time
S&P Asia 50 CME	3,592.76	+2.50	+0.07%	12/31/2012
MSCI asia apex 50	922.69	+23.69	+2.64%	04:34:48
Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index TOPIX	859.80	+5.71	+0.67%	01:00:02
Nikkei 225	10,395.18	+72.20	+0.70%	01:28:01
JASDAQ Stock Index	55.06	+0.31	+0.57%	01:11:00
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index	23,311.98	+655.06	+2.89%	03:01:30
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index	2,522.95	+42.90	+1.73%	02:01:50
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index	2,269.13	+35.88	+1.61%	02:15:09
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index	881.17	+8.21	+0.94%	02:00:35
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index	9,116.48	+89.49	+0.99%	02:00:35
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index	7,779.22	+79.72	+1.04%	00:46:01
Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI Index	2,031.10	+34.05	+1.71%	04:03:20
S&P/ASX 200	4,705.94	+56.99	+1.23%	01:32:27
National Stock Exchange S&P CNX Nifty Index	5,993.25	+42.40	+0.71%	06:03:50
BSE India Sensex 30 Index	19,714.24	+133.43	+0.68%	05:30:25
Straits Times Index STI	3,201.74	+34.66	+1.09%	04:10:00
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index	1,674.72	-14.23	-0.84%	04:05:02
Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index	1,407.45	+15.52	+1.11%	05:07:00
Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index	4,346.48	+29.79	+0.69%	04:00:01
New Zealand Exchange 50 Gross Index	4,066.51	-14.39	-0.35%	19:30:30
Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index	5,860.99	+48.26	+0.83%	03:30:00
Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index	16,489.99	-304.88	-1.82%	06:57:25
Vietnam Ho Chi Minh Stock Index / VN-Index	418.35	+4.62	+1.12%	02:16:50
Sri Lanka Colombo Stock Exchange All Share Index	5,683.79	+40.79	+0.72%	04:28:02
Laos Securities Exchange Composite Index	1,222.90	+8.13	+0.67%	23:32:00

Asian Shares performance on 2 Jan 2013. Most bigs registered gains but Malaysia KLCI seems to have bucked the trend.. 

Guess which one is our beloved KLCI?

Lets have a look at KLCI's chart for the past year..

Despite the optimism of the new year with the averted US fiscal cliff with $US600 billion of tax increases and spending cuts, expanding manufacturing in China and even news that North Korea might open up, I think the KLCI will still be the odd one out for the new future. Not sure how many all time highs can still be establisehd befoer the impending election. KLCI may very well be trading range-bound between roughly 1580 to 1690 points in 2013. 

Anyway, I sure hope my predicitons are wrong and EPF keeps pumping more of our hard earned cash into the market to boost it up before elections to create somewhat of a 'feel good' factor.. which really shouldn't affect our voting decision anyhow..